Russell Wilson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Passing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-146/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 229.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 229.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the most yards in football (306.0 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (75.8%).
The Denver Broncos O-line has given their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Russell Wilson's passing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 56.9%.
The Tennessee Titans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.