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Russell Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Broncos ranks as the 4th-best in football this year.Russell Wilson's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 66.2%.This year, the shaky New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a staggering 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New England's collection of CBs has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 6.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see just 124.4 total plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).The leading projections forecast Russell Wilson to throw 29.5 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all QBs.
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