Russell Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Completions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The Denver offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Russell Wilson's passing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 59.3% to 67.5%.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).
The Chargers safeties project as the 9th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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