Russell Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Completions

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+100/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.8%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 57.4%.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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