Russell Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Completions

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.08 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in the NFL versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (76.6%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Russell Wilson's throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 55.8%.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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