Russell Wilson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
At the present time, the 6th-most run-oriented offense in the league (41.6% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.
In this contest, Russell Wilson is predicted by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 8th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 4.4.
Russell Wilson isn't afraid to take off running, accounting for 17.5% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).

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