Russell Wilson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Wilson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Broncos offense to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
At the moment, the 7th-most run-focused offense in the league (41.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Denver Broncos.
In this contest, Russell Wilson is anticipated by the projections to notch the 5th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 4.2.
Accounting for 16.0% of his offense's run game usage this year (84th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Russell Wilson's mobility marks him as a dangerous weapon in Denver's rushing attack.
The Houston Texans defensive tackles profile as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects the Broncos to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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