Russell Gage Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Russell Gage

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Russell Gage has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 5.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.
Russell Gage's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 72.2% to 82.5%.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Russell Gage has been a much smaller piece of his team's air attack this season (16.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.3%).
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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