Russell Gage Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Russell Gage

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-177/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Russell Gage's 23.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.2.
Russell Gage's receiving talent has tailed off this year, notching just 3.5 yards per game compared to 5.2 last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) to wideouts this year (64.3%).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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