Russell Gage Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:04 AM EST

Analysis

Russell Gage Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+146/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -192.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
Russell Gage has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Russell Gage to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack this week (14.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.3% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.6%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (57.6%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.