Russell Gage Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Russell Gage

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Russell Gage's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 72.2% to 82.5%.
Russell Gage's talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, accumulating 6.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 3.24 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Russell Gage has been a much smaller piece of his team's air attack this season (16.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.3%).
Russell Gage has compiled far fewer air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).
Russell Gage has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (40.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Russell Gage's receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling just 6.44 yards-per-target compared to a 8.81 mark last year.

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