Russell Gage Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Russell Gage to be a less important option in his team's pass attack this week (15.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (21.2% in games he has played).
Russell Gage's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 6.55 yards-per-target compared to a 8.81 figure last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 8th-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.