Russell Gage Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Russell Gage

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 70.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Russell Gage to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack this week (8.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.2% in games he has played).
Russell Gage has totaled far fewer air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (66.0 per game).
Russell Gage has compiled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Russell Gage's receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 6.37 yards-per-target vs a 8.78 mark last year.

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