Russell Gage Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Russell Gage

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+232/-357).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +378 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +232.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Russell Gage's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 72.2% to 82.5%.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 2nd-most touchdowns through the air in the league to wideouts: 1.50 per game this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Russell Gage has compiled far fewer air yards this year (28.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).
Russell Gage's 31.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 53.2.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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