Russell Gage Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+263/-437).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +268 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +263.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
Russell Gage has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Russell Gage has received a whopping 24.2% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 81st percentile among WRs.
Russell Gage's 48.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 79th percentile for wide receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.3%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (60.3%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.