Russell Gage Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Russell Gage

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Russell Gage Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1002).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -921 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1002.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.92 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a mere 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.