Royce Freeman Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Royce Freeman

NFL · Player Props

Royce Freeman

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Royce Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Royce Freeman has averaged 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (82nd percentile).
Royce Freeman's running effectiveness has gotten better this year, averaging 4.31 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 2.93 figure last year.
This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals run defense has allowed a staggering 137.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 4th-most in football.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Arizona's group of LBs has been terrible this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Rams as the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Rams to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Our trusted projections expect Royce Freeman to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game in this contest (26.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.1% in games he has played).

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