Royce Freeman Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Royce Freeman

NFL · Player Props

Royce Freeman

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Royce Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-102/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Royce Freeman has been a more integral piece of his team's run game this year (48.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (17.2%).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-most yards in football (133 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game.

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