Royce Freeman Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Royce Freeman

NFL · Player Props

Royce Freeman

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Royce Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Royce Freeman to total 13.2 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Royce Freeman to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (53.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 10th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-worst paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

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