Royce Freeman Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Royce Freeman

NFL · Player Props

Royce Freeman

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM EST

Analysis

Royce Freeman Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Royce Freeman to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (40.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.3% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a giant 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.

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