Roschon Johnson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 46.9% run rate.
While Roschon Johnson has earned 21.6% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Chicago's running game in this contest at 37.7%.
The Chicago O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
Roschon Johnson's rushing effectiveness (4.43 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (76th percentile when it comes to running backs).
This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints run defense has given up a puny 4.53 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 24th-best rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
With a lousy rate of 1.93 yards after contact (20th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson places among the least effective running backs in football.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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