Roschon Johnson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to run on 46.0% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Roschon Johnson to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack in this contest (38.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.3% in games he has played).
In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the effect it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL last year.
Roschon Johnson's ground efficiency (4.67 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (80th percentile when it comes to running backs).
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Los Angeles's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent.
The Bears are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
At the moment, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Bears.
Roschon Johnson comes in as one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 1.88 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 18th percentile.

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