Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:46 PM EST

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
With a remarkable 10.7% Target Share (86th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson places among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the league.
With an exceptional 91.7% Adjusted Completion% (79th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson rates among the best possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
Since the start of last season, the strong Washington Commanders defense has given up the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing RBs: a measly 5.3 yards.
This year, the stout Commanders pass defense has yielded the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a paltry 6.9 YAC.

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