Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Roschon Johnson has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 9.7% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (92.3%) to running backs this year (92.3%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
Roschon Johnson has accumulated a meager -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 21st percentile when it comes to running backs.
Roschon Johnson profiles as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among RBs, averaging a mere 3.75 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.
With a weak 4.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson has been among the best pass-game RBs in football in space.

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