Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Roschon Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Roschon Johnson

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Roschon Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an elite 9.2% Target% (77th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson ranks among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.
This year, the anemic Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing RBs: a whopping 8.11 YAC.
The Panthers safeties grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.4 per game) this year.
When it comes to air yards, Roschon Johnson ranks in the paltry 20th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -2.0 per game.

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