Rondale Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Rondale Moore

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rondale Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+185/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The Cardinals are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 59.8% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.06 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Rondale Moore has been featured much less in his offense's air attack.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
Rondale Moore's 2.5 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a remarkable regression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 5.0 mark.
Rondale Moore's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 73.2% to 66.0%.