Robert Woods Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offense as the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The projections expect Robert Woods to notch 6.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Robert Woods has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.4% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
After accruing 42.0 air yards per game last season, Robert Woods has undergone big improvement this season, now averaging 76.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.7% pass rate.
Robert Woods's 60.2% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a a substantial decline in his receiving ability over last year's 66.5% mark.
Robert Woods has been among the least efficient receivers in the league, averaging a lowly 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 25th percentile among wide receivers
This year, the tough Falcons defense has yielded a meager 115.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-fewest in football.