Robert Woods Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
Robert Woods has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 20.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
Robert Woods has been responsible for a whopping 22.0% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.1% pass rate.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Robert Woods's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 61.8%.