Robert Woods Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Robert Woods has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 20.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 78th percentile among WRs.
Robert Woods has accounted for a colossal 21.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (70.1%).

Favors Under

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Robert Woods's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.0% to 57.9%.