Robert Woods Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Robert Woods

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.0 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
After accruing 42.0 air yards per game last season, Robert Woods has posted big gains this season, currently pacing 61.0 per game.
This year, the deficient Broncos pass defense has allowed a monstrous 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 7th-worst rate in the league.
This year, the weak Broncos defense has yielded the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a colossal 5.53 YAC.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects the Texans to call the 5th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The model projects Robert Woods to be a less important option in his team's pass attack in this game (12.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.4% in games he has played).
Robert Woods's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 66.5% to 57.9%.
With a subpar 6.5 adjusted yards per target (9th percentile) this year, Robert Woods stands among the worst pass-catching WRs in the league.

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