Robert Woods Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Robert Woods

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 132.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
The Jaguars defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Robert Woods to accrue 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
Robert Woods's 76.7% Route Participation Rate this year illustrates a remarkable regression in his passing offense volume over last year's 87.4% figure.
Robert Woods's 57.5% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season's 66.5% rate.
Robert Woods's 6.1 adjusted yards per target this year marks a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 7.3 mark.
This year, the formidable Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a mere 3.6 YAC.

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