Robert Woods Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-411).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -378 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -411.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (17.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Robert Woods has put up a colossal 61.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.
Robert Woods's 46.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 76th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (62.3%).
The Tennessee Titans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.