Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been lousy this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Robert Tonyan Jr.'s 22.8% Route Participation Rate this season marks a noteable diminishment in his pass game workload over last season's 60.5% figure.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Robert Tonyan Jr.'s receiving talent has declined this year, totaling just 1.1 adjusted catches compared to 3.1 last year.

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