Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Robert Tonyan has run a route on 62.9% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accrue 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 84.7%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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