Robert Tonyan Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Robert Tonyan has run a route on 59.8% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Robert Tonyan has been among the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Robert Tonyan's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 83.7%.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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