Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) because they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The Raiders defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (54.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.2%) vs. TEs this year (78.2%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Bears to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have just 120.4 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.2 per game) this year.
Robert Tonyan Jr.'s 22.1% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a a material drop-off in his pass game utilization over last season's 60.5% figure.
After accruing 22.0 air yards per game last season, Robert Tonyan Jr. has produced significantly fewer this season, now boasting 7.0 per game.

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