Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to accumulate 5.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (15.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.7%).
Robert Tonyan has posted quite a few more receiving yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has compiled far fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, averaging a measly 7.21 yards-per-target vs a 8.76 rate last season.
Robert Tonyan's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, notching a mere 4.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.78 figure last year.

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