Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to notch 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan has been among the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 28.0 yards per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.
Robert Tonyan's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 89.9%.
The New York Jets pass defense has not been good when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.65 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.
The New York Jets linebackers profile as the 6th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Robert Tonyan has been less involved as a potential target this season (53.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (66.8%).

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