Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 5:41 PM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Robert Tonyan has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 12.9% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Robert Tonyan has been among the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 28.0 yards per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has notched quite a few less air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a measly 7.08 yards-per-target compared to a 8.75 mark last year.
Robert Tonyan's talent in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, accumulating a mere 4.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 figure last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.34 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.

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