Robert Tonyan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Robert Tonyan has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.7% this year, which places him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan's 31.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 24.7.
Robert Tonyan's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 85.9%.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (78.4%) vs. TEs this year (78.4%).

Favors Under

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has compiled far fewer air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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