Robert Tonyan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+209/-332).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +304 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +209.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Robert Tonyan has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan's 29.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 82nd percentile for TEs.
Robert Tonyan's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 70.8% to 86.1%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has put up far fewer air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the least passing touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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