Robert Tonyan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+297/-524).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -456 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -524.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Robert Tonyan has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 11.8% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan has posted a colossal 27.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan's 25.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 79th percentile for TEs.
Robert Tonyan's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 84.0%.
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to TEs: 0.40 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

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