Robert Tonyan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:35 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-532).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -479 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -532.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Robert Tonyan has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.4% this year, which puts him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Robert Tonyan has compiled a colossal 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan's 24.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 76th percentile for TEs.
Robert Tonyan's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 70.8% to 84.7%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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