Robert Tonyan Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Robert Tonyan

NFL · Player Props

Robert Tonyan

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Tonyan Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+343/-658).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +383 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +343.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Robert Tonyan has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 12.7% this year, which ranks him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Robert Tonyan's 27.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 80th percentile for TEs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Robert Tonyan's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 70.8% to 83.7%.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in football (76.1%) to tight ends this year (76.1%).

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
Robert Tonyan has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).

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