Robby Anderson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Robby Anderson

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Robby Anderson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Robby Anderson has run a route on 93.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Robby Anderson's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 49.5% to 63.3%.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.