Rico Dowdle Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Rico Dowdle

NFL · Player Props

Rico Dowdle

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Rico Dowdle Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-121/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.9% run rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
After taking on 0.0% of his team's rush attempts last year, Rico Dowdle has been called on more in the running game this year, currently sitting at 16.1%.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Patriots defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.06 yards-per-carry.
As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New England's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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