Richie James Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Richie James

WR · New York Giants

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Richie James Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+347/-671).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +362 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +347.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Richie James to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (14.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
Richie James has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in an impressive 90.6% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 97th percentile among wideouts.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New York Giants have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.7 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in football (58.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (58.3%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New York Giants offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.