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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 41.6% rate of running the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-most run-focused team in football has been the New England Patriots.

With an impressive total of 56.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (78th percentile), Rhamondre Stevenson has been as one of the leading running backs in the league this year.

This year, the stout Chargers run defense has allowed a mere 4.75 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 24th-best rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

While Rhamondre Stevenson has garnered 59.1% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller piece of New England's run game in this game at 43.0%.

Rhamondre Stevenson's running efficiency (3.85 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (22nd percentile among RBs).

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