Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to earn 15.8 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (82nd percentile).

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 5th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 33.5% run rate.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
Rhamondre Stevenson's ground effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 2.91 yards-per-carry vs a 4.77 mark last year.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been worse at grinding out extra ground yardage this year, notching 1.67 yards-after-contact vs a 3.81 mark last year.
The New York Jets defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, allowing just 4.22 yards-per-carry.

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