Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 77.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 19.0 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (71.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.1% in games he has played).
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for a lot more yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the leading RBs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.62 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.